About Banking

The political instability at the end of 2009 has resolved, with a marginal win by President Traian Basescu declared in December. During the electoral turbulence, which involved fraud allegations, policymaking was derailed and Romania lost out on a EUR1.5bn disbursement from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Although the economy is still in deep recession, it has passed the worst, with GDP data for Q309 showing a reduction in the pace of decline. The unemployment rate remains high, and is forecast to reach a peak of 8.5% in 2010. High unemployment weakens consumer spending, lowers consumer confidence and will place a check on broader economic growth during the expected recovery. The recovery is forecast to occur in 2010 but it will be to be weak and fragile.

Corruption remains a major and longstanding problem. Romania ranked 71 out of 180 surveyed countries in the 2009 Transparency International Corruption Perceptions Index, placing it equal last among the 30 EU countries surveyed. However, Basescu's new term as president improves the outlook. It has also led to expectations of much-needed structural reforms, including the implementation of IMF-prescribed austerity measures.

Total property investment revenue in H209 remained very low, and fell 25% y-o-y, according to CB Richard Ellis (CBRE). However, this was an improvement on H109.

In the office market, vacancy rates have continued to increase, and are expected to grow over H109. Take-up was very poor down in 2009 but began increasing in Q409. This is expected to keep increasing throughout this year.

The retail sector is still flat. Some national retail chains have faced significant financial difficulties. Store openings have decreased, and there are high vacancy rates for shopping centres and, especially, for onstreet shops. In the industrial sector, there has been a slowdown, but this appears to have bottomed in late- 2009. The industrial sector is still expected to be flat in 2010.

Executive Summary

Key Features Of This Report

SWOT Analysis

Real Estate Market Overview

Industry Forecast Scenario

Romania's Real Estate Outlook

Romania's Monetary Policy Outlook

Romania's Macroeconomic Outlook

Business Environment

Romania's RECBER

Central And Eastern Europe Project Finance Ratings

Romania's Business Environment

Company Monitor

BMI Methodology

Project Finance Ratings Indicators

Sources

About the Author:
Romania Commercial Banking Report Q2 2010 now Available on ReportsandReports.  ReportsandReports, comprising of an online library of 10,000 reports, in-depth market research studies of over 5000 micro markets, and 25 industry specific websites.